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When the expectations start out as high as they were for Trevor Lawrence, it is hard to not be considered overrated. However, Lawrence bounced back from a disappointing rookie season and showed growth in how he led his team and understands the game. There is no reason that his physical attributes, strong coaching, and electric supporting cast will not translate into another career year in 2023.
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Every few years the NFL touts a young signal caller as a once-in-a-generation talent. Some generational quarterback prospects become stars like Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck.
Other projected stars, like Ryan Leaf and Jamarcus Russel, are crushed by expectations and their own hubris.
And still others, like Alex Smith, never flourish or fail, having solid, but unremarkable careers.
When it comes to Trevor Lawrence, the jury is still out.
Trevor Lawrence’s journey to the NFL was nothing short of dominant. He was rated the number one player in the nation by 24/7Sports after compiling a 52-2 record as a high school starter. He chose to attend the University of Clemson where he went 38-2 in the regular season and won the 2019 College Football Playoff National Championship.
Winning seemed to be in Lawrence’s blood until he got to the NFL. Since becoming a professional he has shown signs of brilliance paired with painful failure.
Are the early returns on Lawrence a sign that he is an overrated product of excellent programs, or is he a young player still learning to harness his unlimited potential?
A Rookie Season to Forget
Lawrence’s stock and expectations were sky-high after being drafted Number 1 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. Then, he was sold as the best quarterback prospect in the last decade. The only obstacle for Lawrence realizing this potential was a coaching staff led by then Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer.
Though Meyer experienced incredible success coaching at the University of Florida, and later the Ohio State University, he had never coached at the NFL level before joining the Jags. Unfortunately, Meyer followed the trend of legendary college head coaches, like Nick Saban and Bobby Petrino, who dominated College Football but could not translate this success to the NFL.
Under Meyer’s guidance, Lawrence failed to progress much during his rookie season. He posted an abysmal 3-14 record, leading the team to the number one overall pick for a second consecutive season.
Lawrence played all 17 regular season games but finished with a 12:17 touchdown to interception ratio while completing less than 60% of his passes for only 3,600 yards. Analysts stopped asking if he was the next Peyton Manning and started asking if he was more of a future bust.
Bouncing Back in Year 2
Year 2 came with several welcome changes for Lawrence. To help right the team, and get Lawrence’s development progressing, the Jags hired former Super Bowl champion head coach Doug Pederson.
(Pederson coached the 2018 Philadelphia Eagles to a Super Bowl win with backup quarterback Nick Foles and has a track record of turning around quarterbacks’ careers. This includes improving the career of former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith during their time together with the Chiefs.)
This union of Pederson and Lawrence looked promising in the offseason but got off to a rough start as the Jags lost 7 of their first 10 games. Good things take time to gel, though, and this was true for the Jags who boasted a talented, but new receiving corps. This included several new pass catchers like former Cardinals wide receiver Christian Kirk and former New York Giants tight end Evan Engram. Both had career-receiving years as Lawrence led the Jaguars to wins in 6 of their final 7 games to reach the playoffs.
In his wild card game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Lawrence didn’t look himeself, as he threw 4 first-half interceptions contributing to a 27-point deficit. However, after halftime Lawrence led his team to a stunning comeback, going on a 24-3 run to end the game with a 31-30 win.
This game seems to be a good indicator of Lawrence’s career prospects as he shows resilience to bounce back from rough starts to dominate his opponents.
Trevor Lawrence’s 2023 Season Outlook
2022 was a solid rebound year for Lawrence, as he turned from an overrated bust to a potential MVP candidate for the coming season. It may be too early to make that extreme of a prediction, but based on his 27:8 touchdown to interception ratio in 2022, and the increase of weapons for his offense, Lawrence looks to be set up for a great 3rd season.
(Chris Simms’ QB rankings had Trevor Lawrence at #6 at the beginning of the year, behind Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Herbert, and Jackson—not bad company.)
Continuity with coach Doug Pederson’s staff will impact how comfortable Lawrence is with the offensive system and the complexity of the plays that can be called. One criticism Lawrence had coming out of Clemson was that his team was so much better than the competition that he never had to progress through his reads.
It was hard to tell if this was true with Urban Meyer, but we got to see both struggles and growth for Lawrence in his progressions during year two. With another year under former professional quarterback and current quarterback whisper Doug Pederson, Lawrence is primed to continue growing his mastery of the game.
The better coaching staff contributed to the success of Lawrence from year 1 to year 2, but having better skill players also helped. Last offseason the Jags reset the free agent market for wide receivers when they shelled out an average of $18 million a year for star wideout Christian Kirk.
They also signed Evan Engram, a former first-round tight end who had underwhelmed during his career. Finally, they enjoyed the return of former first-round running back Travis Etienne from Injured Reserve.
That nucleus of skill players helped Lawrence post career highs in yards, touchdowns, and completion percentage while cutting his interceptions in half. The 2023 season receiving corps seems even more promising with the addition of All-Pro wide receiver Calvin Ridley from the Falcons last season.
When the expectations start out as high as they were for Lawrence, it is hard to not be considered overrated. However, Lawrence bounced back from a disappointing rookie season and showed growth in how he led his team and understands the game. There is no reason that his physical attributes, strong coaching, and electric supporting cast will not translate into another career year in 2023.
